In the aftermath of American Idol’s first — but probably not last — real shock of the season, it’s worth looking at Idol’s past and how regional voting patterns affect the outcome of prime-time television’s most addictive, most-watched talent competition.
Geography and order of performance count just as much as vocal ability and Simon Cowell’s approval — if not more so — according to a study prepared late last year for the Farquhar College of Arts & Sciences at Nova Southeastern University by Jason Gershman, an assistant professor of mathematics and statistics at the Fort Lauderdale, Fla., school.
Gershman’s study, America’s Idol: How the Contestant Most Voted For Doesn’t Always Win, was presented at a mathematical association conference in Las Vegas in November, where it caused a stir among Idol fans.
Among other things, Gershman ascertained that the phone-voting procedure weighs against populous states in the Eastern and Central time zones; a fan voting in Florida, for example, is competing with everyone else voting on the U.S. East Coast.
A Florida fan voting 1,000 times for his chosen favourite — yes, some Idol fans are that obsessive — will get a busy signal at least 50 per cent of the time, meaning only 500 of those votes will count toward the final result.
A similarly obsessive fan voting in a less populous state in the Mountain time zone — Gershman cited Salt Lake City as an example — is only likely to get a busy signal five per cent of the time, which means 950 of that fan’s votes will count.
Gershman noted that third-season contestant Jasmine Trias, from Hawaii, reached the final three that season, despite critics’ complaints that she was vocally inferior to other contestants who were voted off before her.
Trias outlasted Jennifer Hudson that season, even though Hudson, from Chicago in the populous state of Illinois, would later go on to win a Grammy and an Academy Award.
The other factor weighing in Idol outcomes, Gershman says, is the order in which singers perform on any given night. Idol’s producers try to arrange performance nights so that the singers alternate according to gender.
Idol producers often assign the front-runner at the end, in the so-called “pimp spot,” so the TV ratings will give the program that follows a ratings boost.
In recent seasons, Idol producers have tried to even the field by ensuring that every Idol contestant, even the front-runner, opens the show at least once, because it’s the first of the night, and can be easily lost in the shuffle of the performances that follow.