The ratings gap between "American Idol" and other network shows is so great, one rival programmer famously referred to this Fox phenomenon as the Death Star. But for the past three seasons, that gap, while still formidable, has been shrinking.
And this season, the Death Star might be seen by rebel forces as more vulnerable than ever. With the ninth edition of "American Idol" starting at 8 p.m. Tuesday on WJW Channel 8, some industry analysts are wondering if this will be the year that the ratings juggernaut finally surrenders the title of America s most-watched show. Don't bet on it. Everything would need to go wrong for "American Idol" this year and, at the same time, CBS' "NCIS" would need to improve on an already impressive season to claim the No. 1 spot.
Still, you can sense the weak spots growing on the Death Star. Unlike that looming moon-size superweapon in "Star Wars," however, "American Idol" probably will implode rather an explode. Can you see the chinks in its once-impenetrable armor? The numbers tell part of that story. Having reached the peak of its popularity in 2006 with an average audience of 30.8 million viewers, "Idol" averaged 26.4 million viewers last year.
From the seventh season to the eighth, there was a 13 percent decline on Tuesdays and 8 percent on Wednesdays. On top of that, Paula Abdul has left the judging panel after a contractual dispute with producers. Say what you will about Paula's eccentric behavior, she always was good for heating up the water-cooler talk. Replacing a major cast member on any type of program is difficult, and "Idol" fans must be wondering how the addition of Ellen DeGeneres will alter the reality show's chemistry and mystique.
How will Ellen fit in with sinister Simon Cowell, affable Randy Jackson and last year's new judge, Kara DioGuardi? Will "Idol" keep rolling without Paula persistently punching Simon on the arm and telling him he's just a big meanie?
For that matter, will the big meanie return after this ninth season? The caustic Cowell's contract is up in May, and he has yet to render a verdict on returning for a 10th season. And even though DeGeneres has signed a five-year contract with "Idol," she also told Entertainment Weekly : If Simon goes, I do.
DeGeneres will join the judging panel Tuesday, Feb. 9, when the series settles in Hollywood. Guest judges will sit in for the early audition episodes. They include Victoria Beckham, Mary J. Blige, Kristin Chenoweth, Neil Patrick Harris, Joe Jonas, Avril Lavigne, Katy Perry and Shania Twain.
But if "Idol" is down a bit, it s hardly out. Even with a ratings decline comparable to last year, it still should hold on to the No. 1 spot. The X factor hanging over this "Idol" season is what will happen when the field is cut to a precious few. Will another Ruben-Clay race emerge? If so, "Idol" easily could regain lost momentum. Here is where soap opera can trump other problems and boost ratings.
"American Idol" has been No. 1 for five consecutive seasons, but nothing lasts forever. And while the end of its reign is inevitable, it might not be as imminent as some would have us believe. We've heard this tune before.