“American Idol is surely set to come back to the pack in terms of ratings,” said Jeffrey McCall, a professor of media studies at DePauw University and author of “Viewer Discretion Advised: Taking Control of Media Influences.” “No show can maintain craze status indefinitely. The show had signs of weakness last year and the downward trend is likely to continue,” McCall said. “The loss of Simon [Cowell] alone gives viewers a sense that the decline is upon us.”Still, it’s hard to count out the program that has topped the Nielsen ratings for an unprecedented six straight seasons.
“There’s going to be a lot of interest and heavy sampling early, to see the new judges and the other changes that have been made to the show,” said Todd Gordon, senior vice president and managing director of national broadcast for Initiative Media. “It may not get exactly the numbers it had last season, but if it can be in a similar ballpark, I think it can put Fox into a strong position.
Fox is owned by News Corp., /quotes/comstock/15*!nwsa/quotes/nls/nwsa (NWSA 14.50, +0.06, +0.42%) /quotes/comstock/15*!nws/quotes/nls/nws (NWS 16.14, 0.00, 0.00%) /quotes/comstock/22x!e:nws (AU:NWS 16.27, +0.03, +0.18%) which also owns MarketWatch, the publisher of this report.
“American Idol,” the U.S. version of a British series called “Pop Idol,” debuted on Fox in June 2002 as a summer series. Before Kelly Clarkson emerged as the winner, it was clear that among the three-judge panel that evaluate the contestants — singer Paula Abdul and record producers Randy Jackson and Simon Cowell — that Cowell was the unquestioned star. His acerbic criticisms of the hopefuls aggravated many viewers, but brought them back for more, if only to see the looks on the victims’ faces.
By the second season, when Ruben Studdard won, “Idol’s” two weekly shows finished third and fourth in the Nielsen ratings in the coveted 18-49 category. The next year, they finished first and second — the Tuesday night performance show and the Wednesday night results. And there they have remained, combining with Fox dramas “House” and “24” to form a three-headed hydra that led Fox to the top rank among networks in the important demo.
Changing landscape
Now, however, with Cowell having departed to helm his own version of a U.K. talentfest, “The X Factor,” it appears that “Idol” could be caught. And “24” ended its long run last season.
“Simon’s been critical to the show, no question,” said Gordon. “So this year’s ‘Idol’ is hard to anticipate and plan for as media buyer.” Fox understands the situation. Starting Jan. 19, “Idol” moves from its familiar Tuesday-Wednesday position to Wednesdays and Thursdays. The move was immediately seen as a way to avoid ABC’s /quotes/comstock/13*!dis/quotes/nls/dis (DIS 37.05, +0.04, +0.11%) “Dancing With The Stars,” which airs its results show on Tuesday nights.
“ ‘Dancing With The Stars’ had such a strong season, so you can see why that switch was made,” Gordon said. “The move to Thursday is a really interesting one, because every night of the week is competitive now.”
On Wednesday nights, “Idol” will be seen in a two-hour 8-10 p.m. Eastern slot. During the 8 o’clock hour, it faces off against the ABC sitcoms “The Middle” and “Better With You;” the new CBS /quotes/comstock/13*!cbs/quotes/nls/cbs (CBS 18.77, +0.77, +4.28%) reality offering “Live To Dance” and the returning NBC /quotes/comstock/13*!ge/quotes/nls/ge (GE 17.70, -0.07, -0.39%) game show “Minute To Win It.”